To count or to estimate: A note on compiling population estimates from administrative data
What is it about?
The paper presents two research approaches at CSO, Ireland to compile population estimates from administrative data (data in Government databases) when no Central Population Register exists. One research approach is based on simple counts of records while the second includes an estimation step based on Dual System Estimation (DSE) methods. The paper also provides an overview of the DSE toolkit used - DSE methods are restated and extended in a manner allowing them to be applied in a broader set of scenarios including a scenario to deal with overcoverage.
Why is it important?
There is significant demand around the world for annual census like population estimates. It is not practical to undertake a Census every year, as such, census modernisation efforts are turning to the use of administrative data. This is particularly challenging for those countries that do not have a Central Population Register. This paper considers the use of administrative data for population estimates in such circumstances. The paper also provides a summary of the PECADO toolkit, a DSE based toolkit, and how it is applied to compile population estimates. The PECADO toolkit is novel in that it restates the DSE assumptions such that the methods can be used in a much broader set of circumstances, including a scenario where overcoverage exists or even a scenario where an administrative data list can be used to evaluate undercoverage in the traditional census operation.