When do people judge they know or can justifiably belief the outcome of a lottery
What is it about?
We present the results of two surveys that investigate subjects’ judgments about what can be known or justifiably believed about lottery outcomes on the basis of statistical evidence, testimonial evidence, and “mixed” evidence, while considering possible anchoring and priming effects.
Why is it important?
The survey shows how people's knowledge judgement is often affected by contextual features and that people judge that they don't know the outcome of a lottery purely based on statistical evidence. However, people think that they are justified in believing the outcome of a lottery based purely on statistical evidence and "justified belief" judgements does track underlying probabilities. Moreover, the work offers a wide ranging study of the so-called "lottery intuition" that plays an important role in philosophical theorising, in particular in epistemology