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Austerity did not cause the rise in deaths in 2015
What is it about?
There have been recent claims that austerity in the UK led to a large increase in deaths in 2015. However, the evidence supporting this assertion was not strong and is contradicted by the following factors. Deaths at local authority level show trends inconsistent with austerity. There is no relationship between social deprivation score and the increase in deaths. Some local authorities also show a decrease in deaths. In addition, medical admissions and bed occupancy for a range of diagnoses increase, and it is these diagnoses which have increased in previous examples of the event which occurred in 2015.
Why is it important?
From a policy perspective, it is important to correctly attribute cause and effect. Hence it is unlikely that the reversal of austerity in the UK will have any impact on deaths since other factors are behind the increase, and that these other factors have come into play before austerity was commenced. As of 2019 it is now known that the increase in deaths has happened across the whole of Europe, among other high-income countries and more widely around the world. Given the diversity of the healthcare systems, of dietary and lifestyle factors, and of ethnic groups; and given the fact that levels of 'austerity' are highly disparate, austerity as a common cause can be excluded as causative.